Posted to this website are ratings made by a computational engine developed over a number of years. At some time in the future I'll put together a better-looking website and charge for updated information, but until then it's funded by ads.

Ratings for the U.S. market generated at the close of 11/30/2018

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This website is under development. Ratings are posted here (see the links above), but I haven't yet written the material that explains what it all means. There will be a blog here soon to do that and to receive any comments. Thank you for your patience.

Investing can be viewed as invading into a new land, where there are perhaps rumored but yet unknown risks and rewards. Planning a successful landing of a force on the beach of that land requires skill and forecasting. Landing at low tide can leave you stuck beyond the reach of your goal. Just as an invading army would use tidal forecasting to time its landing, an investor may use market forecasting to strategize his positions.

The engine that generates the material here is a work of many years, and is believed to supply ratings that are sufficiently accurate for an informed investor. The ratings are produced from computational models that use historical quotations as input, using machine learning techniques to identify patterns in the market. Models have been developed for three overall "personalities", which are named and patterned after famous generals you may know.

General Lee was known for his bold movements, and his willingness to take reasonable daily losses to achieve a better overall gain in the campaign. Lee favors models that produce ratings with the correct sign (positive when a value goes up, negative when a value goes down), while obtaining the maximum gain over the modeling period. Lee's models can be expected to have a balanced risk/reward, but don't be surprised if his ratings are off more than other personalities.

General McClellan was known for an almost paranoid fear of losses in battle. McClellan seeks to maximize the correct sign, and cares little about obtaining gains: any large gains are achieved by McClellan are probably by happenstance. McClellan, like his Civil War counterpart, will often miss potential opportunities in favor of preserving his assets, and will sometimes incur losses in a sliding market. Ratings for the McClellan personality may be useful for an investor who wishes to minimize the risk of big short-term losses to his portfolio, perhaps as a check against the ratings of other personalities.

General Marshall was a careful planner that sought not only to win a campaign, but also to win each engagement. Marshall seeks to be as accurate as possible, maximizing the correlation between daily ratings and historical performance. For those investors concerned with performance in the short-term (weeks rather than years), Marshall's ratings will probably where they will want to direct their attention.

General Eisenhower models attempt to maximize performance in a short-, mid- and long-term period, providing ratings that are more reliable through the changes in and the moods of the market. In theory, these models will be the most resistant to mis-adaption to changes in the patterns of market investors. Don't expect the performance of these models won't be as high as others (especially short-term ones), because they are not fixed to a single time period.

General Patton models only rate the reactive (non-trending) performance of securities or currencies. These models ignore the upward or downward trends of the target, so you'd need to consider that yourself. These may be most useful to understand on what day to get in or out of a target.

As of April 2018, straight FOREX currencies against the U.S. Dollar are included, as available in the Ally Forex trading platform. (Previously FOREX currencies were represented by corresponding ETFs -- but it was found that the closing value of the ETF would drift some from the currency, perhaps due to low volume or a time delay between the market price of the currency and the ETF.) Note that these trade daily (including the weekends), so a 30 day modeling period is really about a month (rather than 20 days for stocks).

UNRELIABILITY NOTICE: The information on this website is provided as-is without warranty as to its accuracy, reliability or any other quality. This website contains only information that is the product of or related to a computational engine, and not investment advice of any kind. The information provided on this website should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions, and presented ratings are not sufficient to make an investment strategy or decision. Interruptions in trading or participation in markets, such as pauses for weekends and holidays, may cause discontinuities in historical data against the continuity of time that may yield inaccurate ratings. The models used to produce ratings do not consider announcements or news reports, which may unexpectedly or substantially affect the value of any currency or security. No warranty or representation is given for the information made available at this website, nor is any guarantee given that more information will be provided at any time or with any regularity in the future, including a particular time you might want it to use it in your next trading decisions. This website, its ratings and reports here may be changed or discontinued at any time. Investing in the currencies and securities listed above carries substanial risk of loss, which these ratings cannot remove. You are discouraged from using the information on this website without a planned strategy and analysis that incorporates more reliable advice and information.

COPYRIGHT NOTICE: The material on this website may not be distributed to any other party without the express permission of the owner. Any duplication of this material must include all notices and disclaimers included herein.